A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
